Is fall wax melts profitable to sell on Amazon United States?

The niche generates $148K/yr across 40 tracked products. 0 of 3 products launched in the last 360 days are still selling. 90-day search growth is +249.7%. Flapen's verdict: Worth a look (69/100).

How competitive is the fall wax melts niche?

15 brands and 90 sellers compete. The top 5 products take 35% of clicks and top 5 brands hold 71% of demand.

What do buyers complain about in fall wax melts?

Top complaints mined from reviews: Smell, Durability, Value For Money. The return rate is 0.6%.

What does it cost to enter the fall wax melts niche?

Listings span $6.69–$24.99; the average listing price is $15.79 (sweet spot $15–$100). The average incumbent carries 1,129 reviews — the moat a new listing must climb.

fall wax melts

Worth a look

Shows demand growing +249.7% this quarter, but a failed launch gate (market size, growth, or returns) keeps it on the watch list.

Growth

Incredible+249.7%

90-day search growth — must beat 0% to launch

Returns

Incredible0.6%

return rate — above 5% kills the launch gate

Competition

Great35%

top-5 click share — an open shelf

Quality gap

Great4.2★

avg incumbent rating — lower means beatable quality

Avg price

Great$15.79

avg listing price — sweet spot $15–$100

Review moat

Good1,129.18

avg incumbent reviews — the moat a new listing must climb

Brand share

Good71%

top-5 brand share — brands hold most of the demand

Price range

Good$6.69–$24.99

cheapest to priciest tracked listing — scored on the share inside $15–$100

Conversion

Okay3.2%

search→purchase rate — share of searches ending in a sale

Market size

Okay$148K

$148K/yr · 293K searches

Signals Trending

According to Flapen's Amazon United States niche tracking, fall wax melts is a $148K/yr Amazon United States market (293K searches/yr). The top 5 brands hold 71% of demand. Verdict: Worth a look — 69/100.

Data updated Aug 2, 2026 · scored weekly · How we score niches

fall wax melts market data

Units sold / yr: 15K–20K; avg 250–500/product
Revenue / yr: $237K–$316K; units × avg price
Conversion rate: 3.2%
Avg BSR: #413
Page quality: 0%
Prime: 93%
Sponsored: 88%
Out of stock: 28.1%
Avg brand age: 62 months
Avg seller age: 122 days

Competition & brand share

Clicks spread well past the top 5 (35% combined) — an open shelf where new products get seen.

Brands

15 falling

Sellers

Top-5 brand share

71%

Top 20: 100%

Top-5 click share

35%

Top 20: 83%

Open market

23%

Scentsationals22%
ARVIDSSON17%
UCC16%
Happy Wax9%
The Candle Daddy6%
Farm Raised Candles6%

Demand

Weekly Amazon search volume, last 51 weeks — +249.7% search growth over the last 90 days.

Open Trend

Top fall wax melts search terms

fall wax melts120K/yr +617.3%2.2% conv.
fall scented wax melts33K/yr +341.1%2.3% conv.
wax melts fall scents79K/yr +28.5%2.7% conv.
wax melts fall18K/yr +150.4%3.8% conv.
autumn wax melts8K/yr +150.5%2.3% conv.
fall scent wax melts6K/yr +184.6%4.6% conv.
fall wax melt4K/yr +370.7%0.7% conv.
fall wax melts strong scent6K/yr >1,000%2.5% conv.
fall scentsy wax melts3K/yr >1,000%3.5% conv.
wax melts fall scents long lasting4K/yr -44.2%2.1% conv.

All search terms

Top fall wax melts products on Amazon

Each bubble is one product — market share against review moat; bubble size tracks estimated sales, color grades how beatable the incumbent looks.

Beatable (≤4.3★) Contested Strong incumbent (>4.7★)

All 24 tracked products in this niche — three views at once, no toggling.

Top sellers

by 90-day click share

ARVIDSSON Scented Wax Melts Bakery Soy Wax Melts Cubes for Wax Warmer Fall Scented Wax Melts Strong Scent Autumn Fragrance Wax Tarts - Pumpkin Pie Apple Cinnamon Vanilla Cupcake and More

ARVIDSSON$16.364.1★1,156 rev

Happy Wax Fall Collection: Natural Non-Toxic Scented Soy Wax Melts Total 6oz Variety Pack: Pumpkin Spice Latte Autumn Breeze Fall Woods

Happy Wax$19.734.2★707 rev

Scentsationals Fall Wax Melts Pumpkin Party 4pk Long Lasting Strong Scent Melts for Warmers Includes Pumpkin Spice with Apple Muffins Marshmallow and Caramel 10oz (24 Cubes)

Scentsationals$17.024.4★111 rev

UCC Fall Wax Melts Premium Plant Based Natural Autumn Soy Scented Melts Cubes Wax Melts Tarts Colored Wax Melt - 4 Pack

UCC$9.634.0★4,181 rev

UCC Plant Based Natural Wax Melts Highly Scented Long Lasting Premium Soy Scented Melts Cubes Wax Melts Tarts Colored Wax Melt - 4 Pack

UCC$11.564.0★4,181 rev

Newest

by launch date

STRN Pumpkin Wax Melts Pumpkin Scented Soy Wax Cubes for Home 6 Packs

STRN$10.035 rev

2mo ago

SCENTORINI Wax Melts Pumpkin Scented Wax Cubes for Wax Warmers

SCENTORINI$9.912 rev

2mo ago

Scentsationals Fall Wax Melts Pumpkin Party 4pk Long Lasting Strong Scent Melts for Warmers Includes Pumpkin Spice with Apple Muffins Marshmallow and Caramel 10oz (24 Cubes)

Scentsationals$17.02111 rev

10mo ago

ARVIDSSON Scented Wax Melts Bakery Soy Wax Melts Cubes for Wax Warmer Fall Scented Wax Melts Strong Scent Autumn Fragrance Wax Tarts - Pumpkin Pie Apple Cinnamon Vanilla Cupcake and More

ARVIDSSON$16.361,156 rev

1y ago

ARVIDSSON Halloween Scented Wax Melts Fall Soy Wax Cubes for Wax Warmer Strong Scent Fragrance Wax Tarts Autumn Wax Melts Gift Set Pumpkin Pie Spiced Cider Candy Corn Snickerdoodle Autumn Air

ARVIDSSON$12.98361 rev

1y ago

What buyers say about fall wax melts

What buyers praise and complain about, mined from review topics.

What buyers love

Smell75%

“Great fragrance”

Value For Money5%

“Definitely worth the price”

Quality-Overall4%

“Great long lasting quality”

Durability2%

“Great value and very strong and long lasting”

Strength1%

“Very strong”

Advertised Vs Actual Product1%

“As advertised”

Gifting Purpose1%

“Would make a good gift too”

Warmth1%

“feeling cozy are the same way”

Efficiency1%

“Works great”

Ease Of Cleaning1%

“They are clean”

What buyers complain about

Smell71%

“Not strong enough fragrance”

Durability6%

“Not very long lasting”

Value For Money5%

“Way way over priced”

Strength3%

“Not strong at all”

Quality-Overall2%

“cheaply made”

Heating1%

“they also didnt melt well like the ones I normally buy from target”

Size-Overall1%

“The plug in that came with them didnt fit in my outlets”

Advertised Vs Actual Product1%

“False advertisement”

Thickness1%

“Just too thin”

Product Condition0%

“Dry and old, crackled in the box”

Top return reasons

Smell81%

Advertised Vs Actual Product6%

Value For Money3%

Quality-Overall2%

Size-Overall2%

Durability1%

Functionality-Overall1%