birthday cake chapstick
Skip itBrand-locked demand (top 5 brands take 98% of clicks) — this niche doesn't clear our bar today.
Returns
Incredible0.4%return rate — above 5% kills the launch gate
Avg price
Good$13.95avg listing price — sweet spot $15–$100
Conversion
Good5.5%search→purchase rate — share of searches ending in a sale
Review moat
Good1,142.82avg incumbent reviews — the moat a new listing must climb
Quality gap
Good4.4★avg incumbent rating — lower means beatable quality
Competition
Okay61%top-5 click share — leaders hold, buyers still browse
Price range
Okay$2.40–$21.06cheapest to priciest tracked listing — scored on the share inside $15–$100
Market size
Okay$128K$128K/yr · 168K searches
Growth
Okay+3.0%90-day search growth — must beat 0% to launch
Brand share
Bad98%top-5 brand share — brand-locked demand
According to Flapen's Amazon United States niche tracking, birthday cake chapstick is a $128K/yr Amazon United States market (168K searches/yr). The top 5 brands hold 98% of demand. Demand peaks in Nov–Dec. Verdict: Skip it — 45/100.
Data updated Jul 22, 2026 · scored weekly · How we score niches
birthday cake chapstick market data
- Units sold / yr
- 8K–10K
- avg 250–500/product
- Revenue / yr
- $112K–$140K
- units × avg price
- Conversion rate
- 5.5%
- Avg BSR
- #371
- Page quality
- 0%
- Prime
- 100%
- Sponsored
- 65%
- Out of stock
- 3.5%
- Avg brand age
- 48 months
- Avg seller age
- 136 days
Competition & brand share
The top 5 products take 61% of clicks — established leaders, but buyers still shop beyond them.Brands
7 falling
Sellers
24
Top-5 brand share
98%
Top 20: 100%
Top-5 click share
61%
Top 20: 100%
Open market
1%
- r.e.m. beauty51%
- ChapStick23%
- e.l.f.17%
- Lip Smacker6%
- ROSÉE & CO1%
- COVERGIRL1%
- Open — no brand owns it (1 brand, 1%)
Demand & seasonality
Weekly Amazon search volume, last 104 weeks — +3.0% search growth over the last 90 days.Peak months: Nov, Dec · busiest ÷ quietest = 2.3×
Top birthday cake chapstick search terms
- rem beauty lip gloss33K/yr
- cotton candy chapstick34K/yr
- cotton candy lip gloss21K/yr
- cotton candy lip balm15K/yr
- elf cotton candy lip gloss11K/yr
- rem lip gloss9K/yr
- chapstick cotton candy13K/yr
- cotton candy lip5K/yr
- ariana grande lip gloss6K/yr
- cotton candy chapstick 3 pack4K/yr
Top birthday cake chapstick products on Amazon
Each bubble is one product — market share against review moat; bubble size tracks estimated sales, color grades how beatable the incumbent looks.
All 17 tracked products in this niche — three views at once, no toggling.
Top sellers
by 90-day click share
e.l.f. Glow Reviver Melting Lip Balm Hydrating Tinted Lip Balm For A Glossy Finish & Soft Supple Lips Vegan & Cruelty-Free Cotton Candy Crush
e.l.f.$8.934.6★6,629 rev
r.e.m. beauty by ariana grande | Essential Drip Glossy Balm in Cotton Candy PH | High Shine Nourishing Lip Balm | Hydrating Hyaluronic Acid | Smooth Glossy Finish
r.e.m. beauty$18.624.5★69 rev
r.e.m. beauty by ariana grande On Your Collar Plumping Lip Gloss | High Shine Plumping Gloss | Hydrating Comfort | Iridescent Duochrome Finish that Sparkles (Fembot)
r.e.m. beauty$21.063.9★52 rev
ChapStick Lip Moisturizer Cotton Candy 12-Pack Limited Edition Bulk Lip Balm Fun & Yummy 0.15 Oz Ea
ChapStick$20.324.9★382 rev
ChapStick Lip Balm Vacation Getaway Set + 2 Cotton Candy 0.15 Oz Ea
ChapStick$10.064.7★186 rev
Newest
by launch date
r.e.m. beauty by ariana grande | Essential Drip Glossy Balm in Fembot | High Shine Nourishing Lip Balm | Hydrating Hyaluronic Acid | Smooth Glossy Finish
r.e.m. beauty$18.1269 rev
r.e.m. beauty by ariana grande | Essential Drip Glossy Balm in Cotton Candy PH | High Shine Nourishing Lip Balm | Hydrating Hyaluronic Acid | Smooth Glossy Finish
r.e.m. beauty$18.6269 rev
r.e.m. beauty by ariana grande | Essential Drip Glossy Balm in Skinny Dipped | High Shine Nourishing Lip Balm | Hydrating Hyaluronic Acid | Smooth Glossy Finish
r.e.m. beauty$18.2769 rev
r.e.m. beauty by ariana grande On Your Collar Plumping Lip Gloss | High Shine Plumping Gloss | Hydrating Comfort | Iridescent Duochrome Finish (7 Rings)
r.e.m. beauty$19.9652 rev
r.e.m. beauty by ariana grande On Your Collar Plumping Lip Gloss | High Shine Plumping Gloss | Hydrating Comfort | Iridescent Duochrome Finish (Jelly Sandals)
r.e.m. beauty$20.5952 rev
Trending
90-day click momentumr.e.m. beauty by ariana grande | Essential Drip Glossy Balm in Fembot | High Shine Nourishing Lip Balm | Hydrating Hyaluronic Acid | Smooth Glossy Finish
r.e.m. beauty$18.124.5★
r.e.m. beauty by ariana grande On Your Collar Plumping Lip Gloss | High Shine Plumping Gloss | Hydrating Comfort | Iridescent Duochrome Finish (Jelly Sandals)
r.e.m. beauty$20.593.9★
r.e.m. beauty by ariana grande On Your Collar Plumping Lip Gloss | High Shine Plumping Gloss | Hydrating Comfort | Iridescent Duochrome Finish (7 Rings)
r.e.m. beauty$19.963.9★
r.e.m. beauty by ariana grande | Essential Drip Glossy Balm in Skinny Dipped | High Shine Nourishing Lip Balm | Hydrating Hyaluronic Acid | Smooth Glossy Finish
r.e.m. beauty$18.274.5★
r.e.m. beauty by ariana grande | Essential Drip Glossy Balm in Cotton Candy PH | High Shine Nourishing Lip Balm | Hydrating Hyaluronic Acid | Smooth Glossy Finish
r.e.m. beauty$18.624.5★
What buyers say about birthday cake chapstick
What buyers praise and complain about, mined from review topics.What buyers love
“Amazing Scent”
“its super moisturizing”
“the color is pretty”
“Super Smooth”
“Overall, its a great everyday gloss if you want something simple, cute, and effective”
“Great lip gloss”
“Not expensive”
“The texture is nice”
“The application is really nice”
“Its thick and moisturizes like a good quality lip balm, and shiny enough to look like lip gloss”
What buyers complain about
“there was no scent at all”
“Dried out”
“Too Sticky”
“Thick”
“I thought it would be darker”
“Fairly small”
“and initially thought the burning was an allergic reaction”
“Not worth it”
“It just doesnt last”
“I expected a little better quality because its Ariana Grande”
Top return reasons
Common questions
- Is birthday cake chapstick profitable to sell on Amazon United States?
- The niche generates $128K/yr across 17 tracked products. 7 of 9 products launched in the last 360 days are still selling. 90-day search growth is +3.0%. Flapen's verdict: Skip it (45/100).
- How competitive is the birthday cake chapstick niche?
- 7 brands and 24 sellers compete. The top 5 products take 61% of clicks and top 5 brands hold 98% of demand.
- What do buyers complain about in birthday cake chapstick?
- Top complaints mined from reviews: Smell, Moist/Dry, Adhesion/Stickiness. The return rate is 0.4%.
- When does demand for birthday cake chapstick peak?
- Demand peaks in Nov–Dec; the busiest month runs 2.3× the quietest.
- What does it cost to enter the birthday cake chapstick niche?
- Listings span $2.40–$21.06; the average listing price is $13.95 (sweet spot $15–$100). The average incumbent carries 1,143 reviews — the moat a new listing must climb.