Global lead times and shipping costs for Amazon restock

One number governs restocking: your reorder point, daily units sold multiplied by total lead time in days, plus safety stock. Total lead time is production plus inspection plus freight plus customs plus Amazon check-in. Measure each leg on your first order, because published estimates are consistently optimistic.

The short version

• Lead time has five legs. Production, inspection, freight, customs, and check-in each add days, and each can slip independently.
• Cost and speed trade against each other. Sea is cheapest and slowest, air is the reverse, and the right answer is arithmetic, not preference.
• The reorder point is a formula, not a feeling. Daily sales times lead time, plus a buffer you sized deliberately.
• Cash leaves long before revenue arrives. Deposit at order, balance at inspection, freight and duties before a single sale.
• Your first order is a measurement instrument. Record real dates on every leg and plan the second order with them.

The five legs, and what controls each

A validation-sized first order makes this urgent. Our Phase 1 runs are typically 200 units at $5,000 to $10,000 in cost, and a run that small can sell through faster than sea freight moves, which means the restock decision often arrives before the sales data is complete. Knowing your legs is what keeps that decision from being a guess.

The restock checklist

1. Measure every leg on order one. Done properly means dated records from purchase order to sellable inventory, kept by you, not the forwarder's brochure numbers.
2. Choose freight mode with arithmetic. Compute landed cost per unit by sea and by air, then decide what the time difference is worth in lost sales and rank erosion. A split shipment, a small air slice for continuity and the bulk by sea, frequently beats either pure option.
3. Set the reorder point. Daily unit sales multiplied by total lead time in days, plus safety stock. Write it where you will see it, and let the trigger fire on schedule rather than on mood.
4. Size safety stock against cash, not fear. More buffer means fewer stockouts and more frozen capital. A high-margin product justifies a deeper buffer than a thin one, because the cost of a lost sale is higher.
5. Time the cash. The deposit leaves at order, the balance at inspection pass, and freight plus duties before revenue lands. Map those dates against your bank balance, because a restock that arrives on time and unpaid-for is still a failure.
6. Re-run the numbers for every new marketplace. We restock brands across all 23 Amazon marketplaces, and each one adds its own customs leg, document set, and check-in behavior. The formula holds everywhere, the inputs never transfer.

Restock planning is also a launch-stage decision, which is why inventory math sits inside our Amazon FBA launch roadmap from day one rather than appearing at week ten.

What most freight forwarders will not tell you

A quote is a best-case scenario wearing a price tag. It usually assumes documents are perfect, the port is calm, space is available, and nobody re-inspects anything. Ask what the same shipment cost and how long it took in the worst month last year, and plan with the range, not the point estimate.

Quotes also carry exclusions. Destination charges, peak season surcharges, and storage at port can appear after you have committed. Ask for the all-in landed number in writing, then ask what could still be added to it.

Related answers

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• Week-by-week FBA growth checklist
• Budget allocation model for the first 90 days
• Amazon seller roadmaps and capital: the complete guide

Restock planning comes standard with account management at Flapen.

Keep learning

• Set up your Amazon seller account
• Estimate your launch cost