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cocktail napkins
Launch itA $1.9M/yr market growing +12.6% this quarter with returns at 0.4% — clears our launch bar.
Returns
Incredible0.4%return rate — above 5% kills the launch gate
Brand share
Incredible31%top-5 brand share — no brand owns this niche
Market size
Great$1.9M$1.9M/yr · 1.7M searches
Competition
Great23%top-5 click share — an open shelf
Conversion
Great7.9%search→purchase rate — share of searches ending in a sale
Price range
Great$2.89–$54.83cheapest to priciest tracked listing — scored on the share inside $15–$100
Avg price
Good$13.77avg listing price — sweet spot $15–$100
Review moat
Okay2,062.73avg incumbent reviews — the moat a new listing must climb
Growth
Okay+12.6%90-day search growth — must beat 0% to launch
Quality gap
Bad4.7★avg incumbent rating — lower means beatable quality
Signals No Dominant Brand