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lavender vanilla candles

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Soft demand (-18.8% this quarter) — this niche doesn't clear our bar today.

Market size 19Growth 16Conversion 77Competition 49Returns 97Price range 70Avg price 82Brand share 45Review moat 25Quality gap 48

Returns

Incredible0.7%

return rate — above 6% kills the launch gate

Avg price

Great$17.81

avg listing price — sweet spot $15–$100

Conversion

Great7.6%

search→purchase rate — share of searches ending in a sale

Price range

Good$8.84–$29.54

cheapest to priciest tracked listing — scored on the share inside $15–$100

Competition

Okay55%

top-5 click share — leaders hold, buyers still browse

Quality gap

Okay4.5★

avg incumbent rating — lower means beatable quality

Brand share

Okay78%

top-5 brand share — brands hold most of the demand

Review moat

Bad4,075.71

avg incumbent reviews — the moat a new listing must climb

Market size

Bad$75K

$75K/yr · 56K searches

Growth

Bad-18.8%

90-day search growth — must beat 0% to launch

Competition

The top 5 products take 55% of clicks — established leaders, but buyers still shop beyond them.

Brands

17 falling

Sellers

113

Top-5 brand share

78%

Open market

18%

  • Yankee Candle44%
  • M&SENSE15%
  • Bath & Body Works8%
  • T&H6%
  • AOOVOO5%
  • SVECKE4%
  • Open — no brand owns it (11 brands, 18%)

Product shelf

Each bubble is one product — market share against review moat; bubble size tracks estimated sales, color grades how beatable the incumbent looks.

0%5%$4K10%$8K15%$11K20%$15K101001K10K100K Reviews — right = deep review moat Market share (90d) ≈ est. sales
Beatable (≤4.3★) Contested Strong incumbent (>4.7★)

All 28 tracked products in this niche — three views at once, no toggling.

Demand & seasonality

Weekly Amazon search volume, last 101 weeks — -18.8% search growth over the last 90 days.
3K2KPrime Day '24Spike '24Holiday '24Spike '25Holiday '25Spike '26DecMarJunAugNovMarMay

Peak months: Apr, May, Dec · busiest ÷ quietest = 3.3×

Reviews

What buyers praise and complain about, mined from review topics.

What buyers love

Smell68%

“Clean smell”

Brightness/Shine/Glow5%

“Great sent, easy to light”

Gifting Purpose5%

“Wonderful gift idea”

Value For Money5%

“Great value”

Quality-Overall4%

“It is well made”

Durability2%

“The container appears quite durable”

Color1%

“The color is very pretty”

Size-Overall1%

“Perfect size”

Advertised Vs Actual Product1%

“Just what I needed”

Strength1%

“it was very strong”

What buyers complain about

Smell57%

“Not a powerful fragrance”

Value For Money8%

“looks a lot more expensive than it is”

Size-Overall7%

“A very large candle”

Quality-Overall4%

“the contents is low quality”

Strength3%

“not strong”

Flammable1%

“just burns down the middle”

Advertised Vs Actual Product1%

“Mislead yet again”

Color1%

“the color is not black”

Ease Of Cleaning0%

“Doesnt burn clean”

Gifting Purpose0%

“I wouldnt gift this to anyone”

Top return reasons

Smell74%
Advertised Vs Actual Product8%
Size-Overall6%
Value For Money4%
Product Condition1%
Functionality-Overall1%
Flammable1%
Defective Material/Parts1%
Quality-Overall1%
Color0%