Amazon Launch Estimator
Capital, break-even, and 3-year profit of your launch
Peak capital
$30k
Peak cash required before the business turns cash-positive
You net (illustrative)
+$412k
Net cumulative profit (36 months, illustrative)
Month 1
Choose your plan inputs
Set price, cost, market size, and ad intensity using the controls.
Month 3
First inventory order
Place your first inventory order: 1,279 units (~$8k landed).
Month 5
Go live & advertise
Listings go live; ads run toward ~25% TACoS at launch.
Month 7
Peak capital need
Maximum cash tied up before payouts catch up: about $30k.
Month 12
Cash break-even
First month cumulative net cash flow turns positive.
Month 24
Stabilizing profit
Net profit in month 24 is about +$15k (illustrative).
Month 36
Brand value snapshot
Illustrative brand value of $839k based on the valuation multiple.
Products in niche
How many SKUs you run in this niche.
3
Selling price
Average selling price before promos.
$30
Landed cost
Landed cost per unit including freight and duties.
$6.50
Advertising (TACoS target)
Target TACoS at launch; the model decays spend as you gain organic rank.
25%
Total profit (36 mo.)
$412k
Business value
$839k
Based on a multiple of trailing net profit (illustrative)
ROI
4,155%
On peak capital invested (illustrative)
Cash break-even
Month 12
Profit and cash over time
Cumulative profit
Cash on hand
Financial statement (illustrative)
How the launch math works — and what really drives your first year
- Peak capital: your real budgetThe most cash you will ever have tied up at once — inventory orders, Amazon fees, and ad spend, minus the revenue that has already come back. This figure, not your first purchase order, is what your launch actually costs to survive.
- Break-even monthThe first month your cumulative cash flow turns positive — every dollar spent on inventory, fees, and ads has been paid back. Realistic scenarios land between month 8 and month 18; a break-even before month 6 usually means the inputs are too optimistic.
- Ad spend and TACoSLaunches lean on ads early: total advertising cost of sale (TACoS) starts high while reviews build, then tapers as organic rank takes over. The estimator models that taper — cutting ads too early slows rank growth and pushes break-even out.
- Reorders overlap your salesYou pay for the next inventory batch while the current one is still selling, so cash keeps leaving even in profitable months. Faster growth means bigger, earlier reorders — growth raises peak capital before it lowers it.
- Price and margin sensitivitySmall price moves swing the outcome more than any other input: an extra dollar of margin flows straight to monthly profit and pulls break-even forward. Test price points here before locking in your sourcing quote.
- Why a 36-month viewMonth one is always ugly — launches are judged over the year, not the first weeks. The 3-year forecast shows the shape that matters: how deep the cash trough goes, when it turns, and what stable-state profit looks like.