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4th of july costume

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Soft demand (-79.3% this quarter) — this niche doesn't clear our bar today.

Market size 6Growth 0Conversion 49Competition 19Returns 39Price range 85Avg price 95Brand share 41Review moat 60Quality gap 53

Avg price

Incredible$23.00

avg listing price — sweet spot $15–$100

Price range

Great$7.47–$68.27

cheapest to priciest tracked listing — scored on the share inside $15–$100

Review moat

Good1,112.5

avg incumbent reviews — the moat a new listing must climb

Quality gap

Good4.4★

avg incumbent rating — lower means beatable quality

Conversion

Okay3.9%

search→purchase rate — share of searches ending in a sale

Brand share

Okay80%

top-5 brand share — brands hold most of the demand

Returns

Okay4.4%

return rate — above 6% kills the launch gate

Competition

Bad77%

top-5 click share — a locked-up shelf

Market size

Bad$24K

$24K/yr · 27K searches

Growth

Bad-79.3%

90-day search growth — must beat 0% to launch

Competition

The top 5 products capture 77% of clicks — a locked-up shelf that new listings rarely crack.

Brands

13 rising

Sellers

15

Top-5 brand share

80%

Open market

17%

  • SHANGXING39%
  • ONUPGO28%
  • Costume Agent6%
  • Funny Guy Mugs4%
  • Ibeauti4%
  • BEFORYOU3%
  • Open — no brand owns it (7 brands, 17%)

Product shelf

Each bubble is one product — market share against review moat; bubble size tracks estimated sales, color grades how beatable the incumbent looks.

0%10%$2K20%$5K30%$7K40%$10K1101001K10K Reviews — right = deep review moat Market share (90d) ≈ est. sales
Beatable (≤4.3★) Contested Strong incumbent (>4.7★)

All 14 tracked products in this niche — three views at once, no toggling.

Demand & seasonality

Weekly Amazon search volume, last 104 weeks — -79.3% search growth over the last 90 days.
20K15KSpike '24Spike '25Spike '26SepDecMarJunAugNovMarMay

Peak months: Aug, Sep, Oct · busiest ÷ quietest = 52.5×

Reviews

What buyers praise and complain about, mined from review topics.

What buyers love

Quality-Overall41%

“Fantastic Quality”

Size-Overall23%

“Fit perfect”

Value For Money13%

“Great deal to receive the matching set”

Advertised Vs Actual Product9%

“Just right”

Color3%

“Color quality & comfort with the stretchiness”

Durability2%

“Hopefully these last a couple more weeks”

Comfort-Overall2%

“Patriotic and comfy”

Zipper Quality1%

“zipper works well enough for my daughter to use”

Stretchability/Expandability/Elasticity1%

“Color quality & comfort with the stretchiness”

Fun/Entertainment Experience1%

“So fun”

What buyers complain about

Quality-Overall38%

“Not very well made”

Size-Overall23%

“The flag cape was a bit long for me”

Ease Of Use13%

“Unable to use more than once”

Adhesion/Stickiness4%

“The red/white/blue fake hair is not glued well & falls out every time you touch it.”

Color3%

“Also, when they arrived, they smelled so bad from whatever harsh chemical they used to dye them these colors”

Absorbency3%

“do not absorb any type of sweat when youre running”

Thickness3%

“Thin”

Smell3%

“Also, when they arrived, they smelled so bad from whatever harsh chemical they used to dye them these colors”

Material Quality3%

“First off these are not your typical terry cloth material like you would expect from a running sweatband”

Top return reasons

Size-Overall43%
Quality-Overall10%
Waist Fit9%
Length7%
Material Quality6%
Value For Money5%
Advertised Vs Actual Product4%
Color2%
Functionality-Overall2%
Thin2%