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opi nail polish

Launch it

A $1.9M/yr market growing +31.4% this quarter with returns at 0.2% — clears our launch bar.

Market size 93Growth 57Conversion 32Competition 78Returns 99Price range 38Avg price 35Brand share 0Review moat 13Quality gap 48

Returns

Incredible0.2%

return rate — above 6% kills the launch gate

Market size

Great$1.9M

$1.9M/yr · 7.4M searches

Competition

Great37%

top-5 click share — an open shelf

Growth

Good+31.4%

90-day search growth — must beat 0% to launch

Quality gap

Okay4.5★

avg incumbent rating — lower means beatable quality

Price range

Okay$2.16–$22.79

cheapest to priciest tracked listing — scored on the share inside $15–$100

Avg price

Okay$10.16

avg listing price — sweet spot $15–$100

Conversion

Okay2.5%

search→purchase rate — share of searches ending in a sale

Review moat

Bad26,191.25

avg incumbent reviews — the moat a new listing must climb

Brand share

Bad100%

top-5 brand share — brand-locked demand

Competition

Clicks spread well past the top 5 (37% combined) — an open shelf where new products get seen.

Brands

5 falling

Sellers

71

Top-5 brand share

100%

Open market

0%

  • OPI71%
  • Sally Hansen23%
  • Morovan2%
  • OpenLive2%
  • SAVILAND2%
  • Open — no brand owns it (0%)

Product shelf

Each bubble is one product — market share against review moat; bubble size tracks estimated sales, color grades how beatable the incumbent looks.

0%4%$76K8%$152K12%$227K16%$303K1001K10K100K Reviews — right = deep review moat Market share (90d) ≈ est. sales
Beatable (≤4.3★) Contested Strong incumbent (>4.7★)

All 48 tracked products in this niche — three views at once, no toggling.

Demand & seasonality

Weekly Amazon search volume, last 104 weeks — +31.4% search growth over the last 90 days.
250K150KPrime Day '24Spike '24Holiday '24Spike '25Prime Day '25Black Friday '25Spike '26SepDecMarJunAugNovMarMay

No pronounced peak months · busiest ÷ quietest = 1.4×

Reviews

What buyers praise and complain about, mined from review topics.

What buyers love

Color42%

“Beautiful Colors”

Quality-Overall9%

“Excellent Product”

Moist/Dry8%

“Looks great and dries well”

Value For Money5%

“Excellent value”

Durability5%

“it is durable”

Stitch/Finish/Polish4%

“has a satin finish”

Advertised Vs Actual Product3%

“Does exactly what it says”

Brightness/Shine/Glow2%

“Great shine”

Ease Of Use2%

“Easy to hold”

Ease Of Application2%

“Smooth application”

What buyers complain about

Color16%

“Color not as described”

Quality-Overall10%

“Bad quality”

Thickness8%

“3 layers is too thick for my taste”

Durability8%

“not durable”

Moist/Dry8%

“Doesnt dry”

Value For Money6%

“Expensive”

Advertised Vs Actual Product3%

“Not as Described”

Smell2%

“Bad smell”

Coverage2%

“barely covers”

Functionality-Overall2%

“Doesnt work”

Top return reasons

Color50%
Advertised Vs Actual Product13%
Functionality-Overall6%
Quality-Overall5%
Thickness3%
Smell2%
Moist/Dry2%
Value For Money2%
Paint Quality2%
Size-Overall2%