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dark red gel nail polish

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Soft demand (-28.8% this quarter) — this niche doesn't clear our bar today.

Market size 41Growth 11Conversion 71Competition 60Returns 71Price range 35Avg price 22Brand share 22Review moat 18Quality gap 55

Conversion

Good6.5%

search→purchase rate — share of searches ending in a sale

Returns

Good2.2%

return rate — above 6% kills the launch gate

Competition

Good49%

top-5 click share — leaders hold, buyers still browse

Quality gap

Good4.4★

avg incumbent rating — lower means beatable quality

Market size

Okay$209K

$209K/yr · 398K searches

Price range

Okay$5.33–$20.18

cheapest to priciest tracked listing — scored on the share inside $15–$100

Brand share

Bad91%

top-5 brand share — brand-locked demand

Avg price

Bad$8.07

avg listing price — sweet spot $15–$100

Review moat

Bad16,610.62

avg incumbent reviews — the moat a new listing must climb

Growth

Bad-28.8%

90-day search growth — must beat 0% to launch

Competition

The top 5 products take 49% of clicks — established leaders, but buyers still shop beyond them.

Brands

12 rising

Sellers

14

Top-5 brand share

91%

Open market

7%

  • GAOY36%
  • beetles Gel Polish25%
  • Double Rhythm17%
  • CANNI11%
  • Vishine3%
  • Born Pretty2%
  • Open — no brand owns it (6 brands, 7%)

Product shelf

Each bubble is one product — market share against review moat; bubble size tracks estimated sales, color grades how beatable the incumbent looks.

0%4%$8K8%$17K12%$25K16%$34K101001K10K100K Reviews — right = deep review moat Market share (90d) ≈ est. sales
Beatable (≤4.3★) Contested Strong incumbent (>4.7★)

All 29 tracked products in this niche — three views at once, no toggling.

Demand & seasonality

Weekly Amazon search volume, last 104 weeks — -28.8% search growth over the last 90 days.
20K15KSpike '24Prime Day '25Spike '25SepDecMarJunAugNovMarMay

Peak months: Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec · busiest ÷ quietest = 5.7×

Reviews

What buyers praise and complain about, mined from review topics.

What buyers love

Color56%

“Cute colors”

Quality-Overall10%

“GOOD QUALITY”

Stitch/Finish/Polish4%

“a really beautiful finish”

Value For Money3%

“Worth the price”

Ease Of Use3%

“Easy to use”

Advertised Vs Actual Product2%

“Exactly what I wanted”

Ease Of Application2%

“Easy to apply”

Coverage2%

“Good coverage”

Durability2%

“its durability is excellent”

Brightness/Shine/Glow2%

“keeps its shine for days”

What buyers complain about

Color16%

“Not the right color”

Moist/Dry14%

“Doesn't dry”

Quality-Overall8%

“Trash”

Allergies6%

“Allergic reaction”

Paint Quality5%

“The first time I painted on too thick”

Thickness5%

“Too thick”

Adhesion/Stickiness4%

“It remained sticky”

Size-Overall4%

“This set is so tiny”

Dilute/Watery4%

“its like water”

Durability3%

“it falls apart the same day”

Top return reasons

Color54%
Advertised Vs Actual Product8%
Functionality-Overall6%
Quality-Overall4%
Thickness4%
Moist/Dry3%
Leak-Proof2%
Paint Quality2%
Size-Overall2%
Value For Money2%