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dark green gel nail polish

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Soft demand (-31.9% this quarter) — this niche doesn't clear our bar today.

Market size 36Growth 9Conversion 46Competition 92Returns 84Price range 57Avg price 28Brand share 39Review moat 21Quality gap 57

Competition

Great23%

top-5 click share — an open shelf

Returns

Great1.6%

return rate — above 6% kills the launch gate

Quality gap

Good4.4★

avg incumbent rating — lower means beatable quality

Price range

Good$3.36–$30.32

cheapest to priciest tracked listing — scored on the share inside $15–$100

Conversion

Okay3.6%

search→purchase rate — share of searches ending in a sale

Brand share

Okay82%

top-5 brand share — brands hold most of the demand

Market size

Okay$177K

$177K/yr · 518K searches

Avg price

Okay$9.36

avg listing price — sweet spot $15–$100

Review moat

Bad12,250.38

avg incumbent reviews — the moat a new listing must climb

Growth

Bad-31.9%

90-day search growth — must beat 0% to launch

Competition

Clicks spread well past the top 5 (23% combined) — an open shelf where new products get seen.

Brands

16 rising

Sellers

20

Top-5 brand share

82%

Open market

14%

  • beetles Gel Polish28%
  • GAOY24%
  • Double Rhythm12%
  • CANNI12%
  • Born Pretty5%
  • modelones4%
  • Open — no brand owns it (10 brands, 14%)

Product shelf

Each bubble is one product — market share against review moat; bubble size tracks estimated sales, color grades how beatable the incumbent looks.

0%2%$4K4%$7K6%$11K8%$14K101001K10K100K Reviews — right = deep review moat Market share (90d) ≈ est. sales
Beatable (≤4.3★) Contested Strong incumbent (>4.7★)

All 84 tracked products in this niche — three views at once, no toggling.

Demand & seasonality

Weekly Amazon search volume, last 104 weeks — -31.9% search growth over the last 90 days.
25K15KSpike '24Holiday '24Spike '25Prime Day '25Holiday '25Spike '26SepDecMarJunAugNovMarMay

Peak months: Mar, Dec · busiest ÷ quietest = 2.5×

Reviews

What buyers praise and complain about, mined from review topics.

What buyers love

Color43%

“Cute color”

Quality-Overall9%

“Excellent product”

Value For Money6%

“Good deal”

Stitch/Finish/Polish5%

“The finish is glossy”

Ease Of Application4%

“even application”

Ease Of Use3%

“Easy to use”

Durability2%

“Very durable”

Advertised Vs Actual Product2%

“As advertised”

Soft Feel2%

“Smoothnes”

Paint Quality1%

“The paint quality is amazing”

What buyers complain about

Size-Overall15%

“Bottles are too small”

Color8%

“definitely not the color I ordered”

Quality-Overall7%

“Awful quality”

Allergies6%

“Allergic reaction”

Moist/Dry6%

“It does not dry”

Leak-Proof4%

“Leaked everywhere”

Thickness4%

“others are thinner”

Durability4%

“Does not last”

Adhesion/Stickiness3%

“So dont worry if it is a bit sticky”

Paint Quality3%

“You can only paint 1 nail at a time”

Top return reasons

Color40%
Size-Overall11%
Advertised Vs Actual Product8%
Leak-Proof7%
Functionality-Overall6%
Quality-Overall4%
Paint Quality4%
Moist/Dry2%
Thickness2%
Defective Material/Parts2%