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national park paint by number

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A small market ($19K/yr) — this niche doesn't clear our bar today.

Market size 5Growth 15Conversion 17Competition 40Returns 69Price range 78Avg price 94Brand share 65Review moat 92Quality gap 62

Avg price

Great$22.61

avg listing price — sweet spot $15–$100

Review moat

Great157.37

avg incumbent reviews — the moat a new listing must climb

Price range

Great$11.15–$29.73

cheapest to priciest tracked listing — scored on the share inside $15–$100

Returns

Good2.3%

return rate — above 6% kills the launch gate

Brand share

Good66%

top-5 brand share — brands hold most of the demand

Quality gap

Good4.4★

avg incumbent rating — lower means beatable quality

Competition

Okay61%

top-5 click share — leaders hold, buyers still browse

Conversion

Bad1.4%

search→purchase rate — share of searches ending in a sale

Growth

Bad-19.7%

90-day search growth — must beat 0% to launch

Market size

Bad$19K

$19K/yr · 62K searches

Competition

The top 5 products take 61% of clicks — established leaders, but buyers still shop beyond them.

Brands

16 falling

Sellers

18

Top-5 brand share

66%

Open market

28%

  • Offito27%
  • Camocin14%
  • AOSGEDY13%
  • Fountor6%
  • Canrichshop6%
  • obterie5%

Product shelf

Each bubble is one product — market share against review moat; bubble size tracks estimated sales, color grades how beatable the incumbent looks.

0%10%$2K20%$4K30%$6K40%$8K1101001K Reviews — right = deep review moat Market share (90d) ≈ est. sales
Beatable (≤4.3★) Contested Strong incumbent (>4.7★)

All 19 tracked products in this niche — three views at once, no toggling.

Demand & seasonality

Weekly Amazon search volume, last 82 weeks — -19.7% search growth over the last 90 days.
7K5KSpike '25Prime Day '25Holiday '25Spike '26JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun

Peak months: Dec · busiest ÷ quietest = 3.5×

Reviews

What buyers praise and complain about, mined from review topics.

What buyers love

Fun/Entertainment Experience25%

“Fun project”

Ease Of Use14%

“Easy,”

Quality-Overall10%

“Very good kit”

Gifting Purpose9%

“Great gift idea”

Paint Quality8%

“These where so fun to paint will buy other sets”

Value For Money8%

“Great buy for the money”

Color6%

“The colors were nice and even”

Image/Picture Clarity4%

“Pictures are very pretty”

Assembly/Installation3%

“easy to set up/paint”

Advertised Vs Actual Product3%

“As described”

What buyers complain about

Paint Quality26%

“a cheap paint by numbers painting”

Frame Quality12%

“No frame”

Color6%

“I only had one color that was dried out”

Instructions/User Manual/Troubleshooting6%

“Illegible instructions”

Hard Feel6%

“Hard”

Advertised Vs Actual Product6%

“Didnt come with everything that it was described to”

Size-Overall4%

“smaller than a postcard size”

Ease Of Use3%

“These are not easy to use”

Strength3%

“Have backup paint brushes because the provided 3 brushes in each pack are pretty flimsy”

Thickness3%

“The stuff that wasnt dried up was still too thick to use”

Top return reasons

Paint Quality29%
Advertised Vs Actual Product18%
Size-Overall18%
Frame Quality11%
Material Quality5%
Value For Money5%
Print Quality4%
Stretchability/Expandability/Elasticity2%
Mounting1%
Product Condition1%