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harry potter paint by number

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A small market ($15K/yr) — this niche doesn't clear our bar today.

Market size 4Growth 5Conversion 16Competition 52Returns 96Price range 70Avg price 75Brand share 47Review moat 92Quality gap 68

Returns

Incredible0.8%

return rate — above 6% kills the launch gate

Review moat

Great152.91

avg incumbent reviews — the moat a new listing must climb

Avg price

Great$14.99

avg listing price — sweet spot $15–$100

Price range

Good$4.43–$39.91

cheapest to priciest tracked listing — scored on the share inside $15–$100

Quality gap

Good4.3★

avg incumbent rating — lower means beatable quality

Competition

Good54%

top-5 click share — leaders hold, buyers still browse

Brand share

Okay77%

top-5 brand share — brands hold most of the demand

Conversion

Bad1.3%

search→purchase rate — share of searches ending in a sale

Growth

Bad-40.9%

90-day search growth — must beat 0% to launch

Market size

Bad$15K

$15K/yr · 82K searches

Competition

The top 5 products take 54% of clicks — established leaders, but buyers still shop beyond them.

Brands

16 rising

Sellers

30

Top-5 brand share

77%

Open market

19%

  • AQUARIUS32%
  • Fairyland JinWenn28%
  • koemhxb6%
  • AALBLAC5%
  • Generic5%
  • EIBEILI5%

Product shelf

Each bubble is one product — market share against review moat; bubble size tracks estimated sales, color grades how beatable the incumbent looks.

0%5%$77210%$2K15%$2K20%$3K1101001K Reviews — right = deep review moat Market share (90d) ≈ est. sales
Beatable (≤4.3★) Contested Strong incumbent (>4.7★)2 products missing review or click data not plotted

All 23 tracked products in this niche — three views at once, no toggling.

Demand & seasonality

Weekly Amazon search volume, last 82 weeks — -40.9% search growth over the last 90 days.
6K4KSpike '25Black Friday '25Holiday '25JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun

Peak months: Nov, Dec · busiest ÷ quietest = 5.1×

Reviews

What buyers praise and complain about, mined from review topics.

What buyers love

Quality-Overall15%

“The detail is very fine”

Fun/Entertainment Experience13%

“Fun art project”

Gifting Purpose10%

“Birthday gift”

Size-Overall9%

“Good size”

Value For Money7%

“Great price”

Paint Quality7%

“All of the paints arrived fresh and vibrant, and the finished image is absolutely stunning”

Ease Of Use6%

“Easy to use”

Advertised Vs Actual Product4%

“These brushes perform exactly as advertised”

Color4%

“Very pretty”

Design-Overall3%

“The designs are colorful”

What buyers complain about

Paint Quality20%

“difficult to paint”

Size-Overall14%

“Some of the sections are small”

Advertised Vs Actual Product11%

“The numbered canvas looks NOTHING like the picture”

Quality-Overall11%

“Very cheap product”

Color7%

“The biggest issue is 11 colors of blue”

Ease Of Use3%

“Not so easy”

Defective Material/Parts3%

“An entire piece is missing”

Assembly/Installation3%

“parts were not easy”

Thickness2%

“it always comes out thicker even with the smallest brush”

Suitability Beginner2%

“its not for beginners”

Top return reasons

Paint Quality26%
Size-Overall18%
Value For Money9%
Advertised Vs Actual Product9%
Frame Quality8%
Material Quality7%
Gifting Purpose4%
Defective Material/Parts3%
Quality-Overall2%
Ease Of Use2%