---
title: "Trend — christmas paint by numbers for adults - Flapen"
canonical_url: "https://flapen.com/research/us/arts-crafts-sewing/christmas-paint-by-numbers-for-adults/trend"
last_updated: "2026-08-09T17:07:30.609Z"
locale: en
meta:
  description: "Niche score 58/100 · $116K/yr market. A failed launch gate (market size, growth, or returns) keeps it on the watch list. Data updated Jul 2026."
  "og:description": "Niche score 58/100 · $116K/yr market. A failed launch gate (market size, growth, or returns) keeps it on the watch list. Data updated Jul 2026."
  "og:title": "Trend — christmas paint by numbers for adults - Flapen"
---

# **christmas paint by numbers for adults**

**Worth a look**

Shows no brand lock-in (top 5 brands take 39% of clicks), but a failed launch gate (market size, growth, or returns) keeps it on the watch list.

Market size 27Growth 16Conversion 27Competition 91Returns 74Price range 59Avg price 48Brand share 95Review moat 90Quality gap 82

**Brand share**

**Incredible****39%**

top-5 brand share — no brand owns this niche

**Competition**

**Great****24%**

top-5 click share — an open shelf

**Review moat**

**Great****190.7**

avg incumbent reviews — the moat a new listing must climb

**Quality gap**

**Great****4.2★**

avg incumbent rating — lower means beatable quality

**Returns**

**Good****2.0%**

return rate — above 5% kills the launch gate

**Price range**

**Good****$4.28–$30.30**

cheapest to priciest tracked listing — scored on the share inside $15–$100

**Avg price**

**Okay****$11.75**

avg listing price — sweet spot $15–$100

**Market size**

**Okay****$116K**

$116K/yr · 452K searches

**Conversion**

**Okay****2.2%**

search→purchase rate — share of searches ending in a sale

**Growth**

**Bad****-17.5%**

90-day search growth — must beat 0% to launch

**Signals**[** No Dominant Brand**](https://flapen.com/research/niches?market=us&signal=no_dominant_brand "Top brand's click share < 20%") [** Low Review Barrier**](https://flapen.com/research/niches?market=us&signal=low_review_barrier "Top brand's reviews < 500")

## Trend